# Adjacent's Look Ahead - Week of August 17, 2026 *August 17, 2026* > CFTC Probes Mention Markets, Washington and Baltimore Pile On, and Kalshi Pulls a Product Line ![Adjacent's Look Ahead - Week of August 17, 2026]() Welcome to The Adjacent Weekly, your Sunday roundup of everything that moved prediction markets this week and everything worth watching next week. Regulatory issues continue to dominate headlines. The CFTC opened a probe of “mention markets” and as a result Kalshi pulled its sports mention markets “until further notice.” Washington State’s King County court ordered Kalshi to cease contracts across a wide range of categories, and Baltimore filed suits against both Kalshi and Polymarket, naming Robinhood, Webull, and Coinbase as distribution partners. In industry news, Novig published a responsible-trading framework, Castle launched a prediction-market hedging firm, and Polymarket acquired Turf, an NFL prediction product. **The Week That Was: August 10-16** \#1 - CFTC Opens Probe of Mention Markets Federal regulators are looking into “mention markets”, contracts on whether a public figure says a particular word or phrase, over concerns they are too easily manipulated - Kalshi has already removed sports mention markets “until further notice.” Political, earnings call, live newscast mention markets are still trading. - The probe comes a month after ABC [reported that President Trump’s teleprompter operator ]()used Kalshi to profit from bets on the president’s speeches - [NPR also highlighted the recent resolution dispute]() during the World Cup final, where a Fox sportscaster mistook Matt Damon for Brad Pitt. Kalshi’s market settled on “Pitt attended” per its contract rules and traders who bet No lost over $287,866 > We recently launched a dispute and resolution database collecting everything from vague markets to manipulations. Consider submitting with your agent! \#2 - Washington State Court Orders Kalshi to Remove Contracts Across Several Categories, Not Just Sports [The order requires Kalshi to stop offering, accepting, or facilitating event contracts in Washington](). The categories span from sports, to elections, politics, entertainment, culture, technology, science, and mentions. - IP and residency geofencing is required by August 19 and multi source geofencing by September 2 - The banned categories are wider than those targeted in Michigan, Nevada, and New York - Washington is also seeking restitution, disgorgement, and civil penalties - Kalshi’s request to stay the injunction was denied by the Washington Court of Appeals > **Tweet:** [Embedded content]() \#3 - Baltimore Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, and Their Distribution Partners The [City of Baltimore filed separate lawsuits against Kalshi and Polymarket alleging unlicensed sports betting and violations of the city’s consumer protection ordinance](). - The complaint also names distribution partners; Robinhood, Webull, and Coinbase - Baltimore is seeking an injunction, restitution, disgorgement, and civil penalties - Mayor Brandon Scott called the platforms “sportsbooks without licenses” and Kalshi claims the suits are little more than “political theater” aimed at relitigating issues already before the Fourth Circuit \#4 - Gemini Q2: Predictions “Largest Near Term Growth Opportunity” [Gemini reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 13 after the close](), giving some insight on how prediction markets are performing inside a public exchange. - Total revenue rose 37% YoY to $45.0 million - Services revenue jumped 149% YoY - Exchange transaction revenue fell 38% YoY and spot trading volume dropped 66% due to bear market in crypto - Gemini Predictions posted record monthly volumes every month since April - On the call, Cameron Winklevoss called prediction markets the company’s “largest near-term growth opportunity” - The prediction business showed volume up 93% quarter over quarter with more than 225 million contracts traded since launch - Over 27,000 prediction market traders on the platform and number of contracted market makers tripled, 3x contracted market makers - Perpetual futures pending U.S. approval and are already live in Singapore The stock fell about 5% on the announcement, extending GEMI’s decline this year to -56.7%. Clearly, the market remains focused on the weak crypto exchange segment, but what’s worth watching is the growing prediction market business > **Tweet:** [Embedded content]() \#5 - Kalshi Valuation Jumps to $40 Billion, 2x Increase Since May [The Information reported Sequoia and Wellington]() are in talks to co lead the new round just months after Kalshi raised at a $22 billion valuation in May. Kalshi’s annualized revenue has passed $4 billion. > **Tweet:** [Embedded content]() \#6 - Novig Releases Responsible Trading Framework [Novig announced a responsible trading framework]() written into the Ludlow Exchange rulebook, including the only nationwide 21+ age requirement among federally regulated prediction market platforms. - Framework covers; deposit and loss limits, cooling off periods, responsible marketing, restrictions on loss chasing incentives, and risk based monitoring - The move follows the [CFTC’s recent advisory on incentive programs](), which warned against “risk free” trades, unlimited rebates, and sweepstakes style rewardsKalshi is rolling out [incentives for their perp products]() Novig has been a vocal advocate of self regulation as states continue to pressure the sector > **Tweet:** [Embedded content]() \#7 - Castle works with SIG and Kalshi to Hedge Atypical Risk [Castle Technologies](), a new startup founded by four Stanford grads and backed by Ribbit, is using prediction markets to hedge risks that traditional insurers typically don’t cover. - [CNBC exclusive detailed an early collaboration involving Susquehanna and Kalshi]() where a California goat herder paid a $50,000 premium for a contract that pays up to $500,000 if a state wage exemption is not extended, offering a hedge against rising labor costs > **Tweet:** [Embedded content]() \#8 - Polymarket Acquires Turf Team [Polymarket announced the six person team behind Turf](), a real time NFL prediction product built around the next play, drive, and score, is joining to work across Polymarket’s U.S. web and app. > **Tweet:** [Embedded content]() \#9 - Underdog Sued by Aristotle - [Underdog is being sued in Delaware by Aristotle](), the creator of the exchange and clearinghouse Underdog acquired earlier this year, over the economics of the [IG Group transaction]() > **Tweet:** [Embedded content]() \#10 - Kalshi Parlays Lead Volume in Early August Over the first 12 days of August, parlays became Kalshi’s top category by volume, with more than $6 billion transacted. This represents over 41% of total platform volume and happened during the quietest stretch of the sports calendar. > **Tweet:** [Embedded content]() **Prediction Market Stocks: YTD Performance** ![https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc237bf6b-48fa-453c-bb26-bfec933ed6dc\_1870x1166.png]() **Regulation and Industry News** - [Connecticut federal court rebukes CFTC’s declaration of “market emergency”]() and denies Kalshi’s motion for injunction pending appeal. - [Volatility Shares files for 32 ETFs tied to each NHL team]() that will invest in futures contracts tied to the CME FSPI index. - [New York City Council investigating Kalshi and Polymarket]() - [CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee inaugural meeting set for Aug 20 in Washington]() - [Kalshi Adopts Nasdaq Market Surveillance to Enhance Market Oversight]() - Camilo Saravia, founder of [BlueWalker Capital](), a prediction market hedge fund backed by Daniel Howard of Halo Capital was featured on the Odds On Open podcast @curiouscamilo), founder of BlueWalker Capital, a systematic prediction markets fund backed by Daniel Howard of Halo Capital.\\n\\n\\"I don't want more capital. I'm extremely long our ","username":"ethanrkho","name":"Ethan Kho","profile\_image\_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile\_images/2071869778319327232/GGsLcgCg\_normal.jpg","date":"2026-08-13T14:02:46.000Z","photos":\[{"img\_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s\_!npGZ!,w\_1028,c\_limit,f\_auto,q\_auto:best,fl\_progressive:steep/l\_play\_button\_usfui2,w\_88,e\_colorize:0/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F\_\_ss-rehost\_\_tw-video-preview-13\_2087891872551456768.jpg","link\_url":"https://t.co/ehox4AV1zj"}\],"quoted\_tweet":{},"reply\_count":22,"retweet\_count":23,"like\_count":362,"impression\_count":49631,"expanded\_url":null,"video\_url":"https://video.twimg.com/amplify\_video/2087891872551456768/vid/avc1/1280x720/olulRlCW7KchgPZn.mp4","video\_preview\_media\_key":"13\_2087891872551456768","belowTheFold":true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM"\> **The Week Ahead: August 17-23** **Tuesday** Primary Elections: [Alaska](), [Florida](), [Wyoming]() **Wednesday** [FOMC Minutes]() - July meeting details - Markets still debating September hike vs hold > **Polymarket market:** [Embedded content]() White House to Host Prediction Market Executives - According to Politico, the [White House is expected to meet with crypto and prediction market executives around August 19](). The session lands as the CFTC probes mention markets and prepares its formal rulemaking. > **Tweet:** [Embedded content]() [Washington geofencing deadline]() - Kalshi must implement IP and residency geofencing for WA or face contempt exposure **Thursday** [Initial Jobless Claims]() - Trend check after recent soft prints [CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee]() - First session will be livestreamed, watch for rulemaking clues **Prediction Markets to Watch** The Florida Governor Republican Primary market will be worth watching next week as [some polls]() are showing a close race between Donalds and Fishback, but markets are pricing in a lock with Donalds at 98%. Could we see another surprise like we saw in [Wisconsin last week]()? > **Polymarket market:** [Embedded content]() The battle for Senate control remains a coinflip with markets pricing in a slight edge for the Democrats. Let’s see if this week’s primaries have an impact on forecasts for the general election. > **Polymarket market:** [Embedded content]() Forecasters are predicting record-breaking intensity for this year's emerging El Niño. [Odd Lots podcast sat down with Justin Mankin](), professor of geography at Dartmouth, this week to explain this weather phenomenon and the economic impact. > **Polymarket market:** [Embedded content]() **Resolution and Disputes** [Adjacent launched its Resolution and Dispute database this week](), a public record of markets that had questionable resolutions. Two recently submitted cases: - Atlanta high temperature market (Polymarket, Aug 5): the resolution source showed 90F on its “Day High” banner but 89F on its hourly observations table. The same source yielding two outcomes because the rule never specified which display governs the resolution. Filed as Source dependence. - Earthquake of at least 6.8-7.4 market (Kalshi, August): the market resolved YES on an event that occurred \~85 minutes before the market was listed. Filed as Definitional vagueness. The broader resolution dispute theme continues to surface in the mention markets. Kalshi’s World Cup “Brad Pitt attended” market settled on the mistaken on-air call, strictly per contract, costing “no” traders $287,866. The Trump “de Tocqueville”/John Deere resolution from two weeks ago continues to draw criticism as a textbook example of antagonistic settlement. ![https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc07fd5cf-ec13-43b7-9505-91a58a2e4700\_1699x1348.jpeg]() **The Index Tracker** ![https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F87ca3ba7-5226-4b7b-9ba5-7426851edc0b\_1200x614.jpeg]() This week we focus on the battle for the Senate. SENBGD closed at 126.20, up +0.28% from a week earlier, as Democrats hold ground in battleground states. SENBGR closed at 74.95, up +1.02% for the week, with Republicans gaining ground in Michigan, but slipping in North Carolina (shown below). The Senate battleground continues to favor Democrats; the House battleground tilts Republican. ![https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6fedb3e-2343-4b5d-9939-598f57b6799c\_1200x667.png]() **Interview of the Week** The Oracle by Polymarket and Werner K. Zagrebbi sat down with Robin Hanson, the intellectual godfather of modern prediction markets. ![https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d029c0a-1d78-4c72-8453-600bbd72115f\_512x512.png]() OG Werner K. Zagrebbi is a board-certified Superforecaster™ who writes about politics and economics at Right Rationalism… Read more 3 days ago · 25 likes · 2 comments · Polymarket and Werner K. Zagrebbi **Final Word** Another week has passed with a flurry of court actions against the major exchanges; the CFTC probe, Washington cease order, and Baltimore suit all arrived within days. The situation is similar to the crypto industry where regulators couldn’t keep up with the pace of innovation and consumer adoption, Bitcoin was invented almost 20 years ago and the Clarity Act is yet to pass. In the week ahead, we should get some additional color on the regulatory front from the White House meeting and CFTC’s advisory committee livestream. We will be back next Sunday with another roundup. For daily coverage, follow [Adjacent Press]() and the Morning Brief by PROPHET x Adjacent, published every weekday. ![https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa59f24d9-ecac-4eb3-8f38-c77fda624a61\_731x200.png]() Brought to you by [Stand]() - the prediction market aggregator and advanced trading terminal for professionals. Discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, and automate your strategies. *This is not investment or trading advice. Do your own research. These are observations about prediction market movements, not recommendations.* --- Read on the web: https://adjacent.markets/article/adjacents-look-ahead-week-of-august-17-2026 Subscribe: /subscribe See skill: /.well-known/agent-skills/read-article/SKILL.md