# Launching the Misery Index

*October 15, 2026 · By Lucas Kohorst*

> A real-time view of the economy based on Okun's Misery Index

![Launching the Misery Index](<https://cdn.sanity.io/images/ddr9slt2/production/515ecaec1529cfbebffa4d3eeb55aab46df1af1b-1456x816.png>)

We are excited to launch MSRY, the Misery Implied Index, the first live, real-time version of the [Misery Index](<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misery_index_(economics)>).

Arthur Okun, the chief economic adviser to President Lyndon B. Johnson, created the [Misery Index](<https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-brookings-institutions-arthur-okun-father-of-the-misery-index/>) by adding the unemployment rate to the inflation rate. [Jimmy Carter used it against](<https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/statement-the-economics-stagnation-study-the-republican-years-1969-1976>) President Gerald Ford in 1976, and [Ronald Reagan turned it against ](<https://www.debates.org/voter-education/debate-transcripts/october-28-1980-debate-transcript/>)Carter in 1980. It reached its all-time high of about **21.98** in June 1980. Robert Barro later extended it with interest rates and GDP growth, and Steve Hanke built a global version that ranks countries. Over the last 20 years the U.S. reading has ranged from about **5** in September 2015 to **15** in April 2020.

Misery is the BLS U-3 unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) and the headline CPI-U inflation rate year over year (not seasonally adjusted). Unemployment is reported 1-7 days after the month ends and CPI roughly 2 weeks following. The existing [Misery Index](<https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_misery_index>) is not real-time and is backward looking.

Using prediction markets on the current/next month unemployment and CPI rates, we have built the first real-time and market driven Misery Index.

It can be tracked at [adjacent.markets/economy](<https://adjacent.markets/economy>) and individually at [adjacent.markets/indices/msry](<https://adjacent.markets/indices/msry>).

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