# Adjacent News

Adjacent is an indexing and benchmarking company for prediction markets and event contracts.

- Canonical URL: https://adjacent.markets/indices/houbgr
- Public data API (no auth, CORS-open, 15-min delayed): https://api.adjacent.markets/api/v1/public
- MCP server (Streamable HTTP): https://mcp.adjacent.markets/mcp (docs: https://docs.adjacent.markets/explore/mcp ; skill: /.well-known/agent-skills/use-mcp/SKILL.md)
- API docs (machine-readable, Mintlify): https://docs.adjacent.markets/llms.txt
- Agent skills index: https://adjacent.markets/.well-known/agent-skills/index.json
- API catalog: https://adjacent.markets/.well-known/api-catalog
- Sitemap: https://adjacent.markets/sitemap.xml

## RED Battleground House Index (houbgr)

> **Reading the value.** Probability-based Adjacent political indices publish on a **50–150 index scale**, not a 0–100 probability and not a dollar price. **100 is the neutral baseline** (the index party's aggregate win-probability across its tracked races is 50%). Each point above or below 100 is one percentage point of win-probability, so **value − 50 = implied win-probability %** (109 ≈ 59%, 95 ≈ 45%, 130 ≈ 80%). The scale runs 50 (0%) to 150 (100%), so an outcome is only "near-certain" as the value approaches 150 (or 50). **RED** tracks Republican strength and **BLUE** tracks Democratic strength; a value above 100 means that index's party is favored across its races.

- Latest value: **111.18** on the 50–150 scale (as of 2026-09-05)
- Daily history: /api/v1/public/indices/houser_battleground_kalshi/prices?interval=1day (44 points)
- Intraday series: /api/v1/public/indices/houser_battleground_kalshi/prices?interval={1min|5min|1hour|1day}
- Constituents: /api/v1/public/indices/houser_battleground_kalshi/constituents?expand=markets
- Auth: none, a public CORS-open snapshot tier.

### Expanded leaf-market constituents (79)

Constituent "Last price" is each market's Yes probability (0–100%), not the index's 50–150 value.

| Ticker | Weight | Last price |
|---|---:|---:|
| HOUSENC1-26-R | 2.15% | 42.00% |
| HOUSEPA7-26-R | 1.88% | 22.00% |
| KXHOUSENC11-26-GOP | 1.66% | 35.00% |
| HOUSEPA1-26-R | 1.60% | 53.00% |
| HOUSEPA10-26-R | 1.53% | 25.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-PA15-26-R | 1.52% | 95.00% |
| HOUSEPA8-26-R | 1.49% | 35.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-GA02-26-R | 1.48% | 7.00% |
| HOUSEMI7-26-R | 1.46% | 44.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-MI01-26-R | 1.44% | 91.00% |
| HOUSEPA17-26-R | 1.43% | 3.00% |
| HOUSEMI10-26-R | 1.42% | 35.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-PA11-26-R | 1.39% | 97.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-GA09-26-R | 1.38% | 96.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-PA06-26-R | 1.38% | 1.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-AZ05-26-R | 1.38% | 92.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-WI06-26-R | 1.38% | 93.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-PA16-26-R | 1.36% | 92.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-PA09-26-R | 1.33% | 98.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-PA12-26-R | 1.33% | 2.00% |
| HOUSEAZ6-26-R | 1.32% | 20.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-GA12-26-R | 1.32% | 86.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-GA11-26-R | 1.32% | 94.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-PA05-26-R | 1.32% | 1.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-MI02-26-R | 1.31% | 97.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-PA04-26-R | 1.31% | — |
| KXHOUSERACE-PA13-26-R | 1.30% | 98.00% |
| HOUSEWI3-26-R | 1.30% | 29.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-PA03-26-R | 1.29% | 0.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-PA14-26-R | 1.29% | 97.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-PA02-26-R | 1.29% | — |
| KXHOUSERACE-MI09-26-R | 1.28% | 98.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-GA08-26-R | 1.28% | 95.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-GA07-26-R | 1.28% | 96.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-WI08-26-R | 1.27% | 89.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-GA13-26-R | 1.26% | 4.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-NC05-26-R | 1.25% | 90.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-NC06-26-R | 1.25% | 91.00% |
| HOUSEAZ1-26-R | 1.24% | 32.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-NC07-26-R | 1.24% | 86.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-NC12-26-R | 1.24% | 5.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-NC09-26-R | 1.24% | 79.00% |
| HOUSEMI4-26-R | 1.24% | 49.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-GA01-26-R | 1.22% | 93.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-NC14-26-R | 1.22% | 85.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-NC03-26-R | 1.22% | 88.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-GA03-26-R | 1.22% | 98.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-NC08-26-R | 1.21% | 91.00% |
| HOUSEAZ2-26-R | 1.21% | 72.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-GA14-26-R | 1.21% | 98.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-GA05-26-R | 1.21% | 1.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-NC13-26-R | 1.21% | 87.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-NC10-26-R | 1.21% | 91.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-GA10-26-R | 1.21% | 97.00% |
| HOUSEMI3-26-R | 1.20% | 9.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-GA04-26-R | 1.20% | 5.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-NC02-26-R | 1.20% | 3.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-GA06-26-R | 1.20% | 0.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-NC04-26-R | 1.18% | — |
| KXHOUSERACE-MI05-26-R | 1.18% | 93.00% |
| HOUSEWI1-26-R | 1.18% | 67.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-MI11-26-R | 1.17% | 3.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-MI13-26-R | 1.16% | 5.00% |
| HOUSEMI8-26-R | 1.16% | 9.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-MI12-26-R | 1.15% | 5.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-MI06-26-R | 1.14% | — |
| KXHOUSERACE-AZ04-26-R | 1.09% | 9.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-WI07-26-R | 1.07% | 95.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-AZ09-26-R | 1.07% | 93.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-NV02-26-R | 1.06% | 79.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-AZ08-26-R | 1.06% | 90.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-WI05-26-R | 1.04% | 97.00% |
| HOUSENV1-26-R | 1.04% | 9.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-AZ07-26-R | 1.01% | 7.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-AZ03-26-R | 1.00% | 1.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-WI02-26-R | 0.98% | 1.00% |
| KXHOUSERACE-WI04-26-R | 0.97% | 5.00% |
| HOUSENV3-26-R | 0.89% | 12.00% |
| HOUSENV4-26-R | 0.84% | 12.00% |

See skill: /.well-known/agent-skills/read-index/SKILL.md