How Adjacent indices work

What an Adjacent index is

An Adjacent index is a rules-based measure built from prediction-market event contracts. Adjacent acts as an independent index provider and calculating agent for thematic, narrative, categorical, and return-based indices, rates, and benchmarks.

How constituents are selected and weighted

Each index has its own formal methodology. That document defines the universe, eligibility, and weighting. In a compute cycle a constituent is included, held, or excluded. A composite can hold child indices. The indexer expands those into leaf markets and supplies each effective weight.

For the authoritative rule, use the methodology PDF for the specific ticker in the Governance document catalog.

How to read the index level

A probability-based index uses a 50–150 scale. 100 is neutral. The level minus 50 is the implied win probability. A total-return index starts at 100 and measures cumulative return. That conversion does not apply to it. A points index uses the scale its methodology defines. A constituent market keeps its own 0–100 Yes probability.

Updates, settlement, and resolution

Public index, rate, and market catalog data is served from a snapshot tier that is delayed by 15 minutes. The indexer refreshes the underlying public snapshot tables every 15 minutes. A market’s venue lifecycle and resolution result are represented in the public market detail data.

Definitions

Event contract: A contract whose value follows a defined event, such as an election. It settles on the outcome. It does not trade a continuous price forever.
Prediction market: A venue where event contracts trade, so their prices express a market-implied probability of the event happening.
Prediction market index: A rules-based benchmark built from selected event contracts. An index provider calculates it, not a venue.
Constituent: An event contract, or a child index, that an index holds. Each constituent carries a weight set by the index methodology.
Composite index: An index whose constituents are themselves indices. Leaf markets carry weights the calculating agent resolves.
Reference rate: A benchmark computed from prediction-market data and published as a percentage. It is for comparison across venues, not for trading.
Calculating agent: The party that computes and publishes an index according to its methodology. Adjacent is the calculating agent for the indices it publishes.
Settlement: How a venue resolves an event contract against its outcome. The venue records the resolution sources it names.

Sources

Page last reviewed: 2026-09-24.