# **1\. What is this index?**

**Name & ticker:** Mayoral Democratic Index (MAYORD), Tracks the probability of a democratic mayoral races.  

**Product type:**

\[ \] Index

\[ \] Reference Rate

\[x\] Sub-index

\[ \] Product

# **2\. What goes in it?**

All party line mayoral markets on Kalshi are eligible for inclusion, screened through the API and manually added by the index committee. No markets are explicitly excluded.

# **3\. How is it weighted?**

**Weighting method:**

\[ \] Single market

\[ \] Equal-weighted

\[ \] Volume-weighted

\[x\] Custom  

Weighting for the sub-index is determined via the overall UPFI methodology. This sub-index uses four factors: historical volume sensitivity (7/10), time-to-expiration sensitivity (6/10), population sensitivity (5/10), and impact sensitivity (8/10). Raw weights use `(volume_score × 0.7 + time_score × 0.6 + population_score × 0.5 + impact_score × 0.8) / 4`, then weights are normalized to sum to 1.0.

# **4\. How is the value calculated?**

**Price used:**

\[ \] Last trade

\[x\] Mid `(bid+ask / 2)`

\[ \] Other: \_\_\_

The index probability value is a weighted average of constituent mid prices `(bid+ask / 2)` on the 0-100 probability scale. A value of 60 means the market implies a 60% probability of the outcome occurring.

From the probability value we take `100 + (probability_value - 50)` to get a value centered around 100. If the probability value is 60 its index value would be 110.

**Calculation frequency:**

\[x\] Real-time

\[x\] Daily at Midnight UTC

\[ \] Other: \_\_\_

Calculated by Adjacent Markets, Inc.

# **5\. When does it update?**

**Rebalance frequency:**

\[ \] Continuous

\[ \] Daily

\[ \] Weekly

\[x\] On constituent resolution only  

Up to 5 days prior to a constituent resolving the constituent is rolled into the next series, if there is not a new series listed until after the constituent is resolved the weights are distributed equally across the other constituents until the next series can be added in.

If a constituent is suspended, the index committee will review to manually remove/adjust within 24 hours.

# **6\. Who owns it and how are decisions made?**

**Index owner:** Adjacent Markets, Inc.

**Index Committee:** Doug Crescenzi, Lucas Kohorst

**Decisions require:**

\[x\] Unanimous

\[ \] Majority

**Data source(s):** Kalshi API

**Published to:** Adjacent API

# **7\. Changelog**

v1.0 - May 2026, Initial methodology