BLUE Battleground House Index
A real-time, market-implied measure of Democratic advantage in U.S. House races across battleground states.
A probability-based index uses a 50–150 scale. 100 is neutral. The level minus 50 is the implied win probability. A constituent market keeps its own 0–100 Yes probability. See the methodology overview for how the level is built. The Governance catalog holds the formal methodology and factsheet.
Key facts
- Ticker
- HOUBGD
- Index id
- housed_battleground_kalshi
- Methodology
- battleground
- Latest published level
- 102.9476 (as of 2026-10-25T02:09:00Z)
- Scale
- Index scale 50–150, 100 neutral (level − 50 = implied win probability %)
- Calculating agent
- Adjacent
- Data access
- Public JSON API, no authentication, 15-minute delay
- API endpoint
- https://api.adjacent.markets/api/v1/public/indices/housed_battleground_kalshi
Index data last published: 2026-10-25.
Live data: public JSON API (15-minute delayed, no auth).
Frequently asked questions
- What is the BLUE Battleground House Index (HOUBGD)? A real-time, market-implied measure of Democratic advantage in U.S. House races across battleground states. HOUBGD is a rules-based index built from prediction-market event contracts and calculated by Adjacent, an independent index provider.
- How is HOUBGD calculated? Each Adjacent index follows a published methodology that defines its eligible universe, constituent selection, and weighting. Values are recomputed on the indexer’s scheduled compute cycle. Adjacent’s public data is served from a snapshot tier delayed by 15 minutes.
- How do I access HOUBGD data? HOUBGD is available from the public JSON API at /api/v1/public/indices/housed_battleground_kalshi with no authentication required. Plans with higher rate limits, the MCP server, and embeddable widgets cover the same data.