Republican Political Future Index
Composite of Republican party-line contests across all levels of office in the United States
A probability-based index uses a 50–150 scale. 100 is neutral. The level minus 50 is the implied win probability. A constituent market keeps its own 0–100 Yes probability. See the methodology overview for how the level is built. The Governance catalog holds the formal methodology and factsheet.
Key facts
- Ticker
- RED
- Index id
- red
- Methodology
- upfi
- Latest published level
- 94.3215 (as of 2026-10-21T22:10:00Z)
- Scale
- Index scale 50–150, 100 neutral (level − 50 = implied win probability %)
- Calculating agent
- Adjacent
- Data access
- Public JSON API, no authentication, 15-minute delay
- API endpoint
- https://api.adjacent.markets/api/v1/public/indices/red
Index data last published: 2026-10-21.
Live data: public JSON API (15-minute delayed, no auth).
Frequently asked questions
- What is the Republican Political Future Index (RED)? Composite of Republican party-line contests across all levels of office in the United States. RED is a rules-based index built from prediction-market event contracts and calculated by Adjacent, an independent index provider.
- How is RED calculated? Each Adjacent index follows a published methodology that defines its eligible universe, constituent selection, and weighting. Values are recomputed on the indexer’s scheduled compute cycle. Adjacent’s public data is served from a snapshot tier delayed by 15 minutes.
- How do I access RED data? RED is available from the public JSON API at /api/v1/public/indices/red with no authentication required. Plans with higher rate limits, the MCP server, and embeddable widgets cover the same data.